Cautious optimism offers best approach to US Myanmar policy

By Nehginpao Kipgen

US President Barack Obama arrived in Myanmar Monday, as part of a three-nation trip to Southeast Asia. The visit was the first ever by a sitting US president, and is Obama's first international trip since his reelection.

The president was joined by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who visited the country in 2011. This may be her last visit as secretary of state.

During his stay, Obama met Myanmese President Thein Sein and Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the opposition and chairperson of the National League for Democracy (NLD). Obama also met representatives of civil society organizations.

The easing of sanctions, the appointment of US ambassador Derek J. Mitchell, and the visit of Obama are a testament to the US commitment toward Myanmar and its people.

The pace of improvement in US-Myanmar bilateral relations has surprised many observers and analysts alike. While many welcome Obama's visit, there are others who criticize its timing.

There are valid points on both sides. On a positive note, the visit shows continued US support for human rights and democratic reforms.

The visit may also boost the initiatives of Thein Sein despite some military hard-liners who are critical of the democratic reform process.

The visit may also provide incentives for both the local and central governments to help end the conflict in Rakhine state. Obama may have used the visit to urge both the government and the opposition to work concertedly for a solution.

Moreover, the visit could be a morale boost for democracy advocates and other civil society groups to strengthen their activities.

But on the other hand, armed conflict continues unabated in Kachin state, and there are thousands of refugees and internally displaced people. And there are still political prisoners across the country. As of October 31, there are 283 political prisoners according to the Thailand-based Assistance Association for Political Prisoners.

Some are concerned that Obama's visit can overshadow the ongoing conflicts and that US leverage to push for further democratic reforms might be weakened.

While the Obama administration should be given credits for pursuing dual-track policy that opened the door for diplomacy, one must also acknowledge the contribution of the Republican administration under former US president George W. Bush.

Among others, the Bush administration successfully placed Myanmar in the formal agenda of the United Nations Security Council on September 15, 2006.

Recent political developments have shown that Myanmar has embarked on a new phase of politics. However, one should not be overoptimistic about its future prospect. Challenges and uncertainties remain over free and fair elections and issues pertaining to autonomy.

After its independence from the British on January 4, 1948, Myanmar had a parliamentary democracy until the military coup in 1962.

The central government was fragile due to insurgency problems. The ethnic minority groups demanded secession from the Union when the Panglong agreement of 1947 on autonomy was not upheld.

Although ethnic minorities have dropped their original demands for secession, the demand for autonomy remains intact.

The present government of the Union Solidarity and Development Party has reached cease-fire agreements with the majority of the armed groups, but there is no guarantee for amicable political settlement.

Moreover, there is no certainty that the present quasi-civilian government will amend the 2008 constitution to remove the inherent role of the military in politics.

There is uncertainty whether the 2015 election will be free and fair. There is also no guarantee that the constitution, which guarantees 25 percent of parliamentary seats to the military, will be amended.

Under such circumstances, it is uncertain whether the judicial branch can function independently and whether former and present military leaders will allow an impartial inquiry into human rights abuses and criminal acts by the past military regime.

Despite the lingering uncertainties, there is room for national reconciliation if the central government and ethnic minorities cooperate.

In order for mutual trust to develop, minority problems need to be resolved. Obama should emphasize the urgency of such a solution. The US must understand that minority problems outweigh differences between the NLD and the military.

There is every reason to be optimistic about the political changes in Myanmar. However, given the nature of Myanmar's historical problems, there are also reasons to be critical about its long-term solutions.

The author is general secretary of the US-based Kuki International Forum. His research focuses on the politics of South and Southeast Asia, with a concentration on Myanmar.