15 pc less rains expected this season

NEW DELHI, Aug 3 (Agencies): India’s crucial monsoon is expected to be 15 per cent deficient this season, the weather office said on Friday, the first indication of a drought in three years.

The country has received 20 per cent less rains than normal since the delayed onset of monsoon in June. Till Thursday, the country had received 378.8 mm rainfall against the normal of 471.4 mm. “We expect monsoon to be 15 per cent deficient than the long period average (LPA) which is 89 cm,” Laxman Singh Rathore, Director General, India Meteorological Department (IMD), told reporters in New Delhi.

A country-wide drought is declared when the monsoon rains are less than 90 per cent of the LPA and at least 20 per cent area of the country experiences deficient showers of 25 per cent or more.

On the impact of failed monsoon on agriculture, Mr. Rathore said that paddy cultivation would not be affected but conditions were worrisome for production of coarse cereals.

There is more bad news on the monsoon front. The India Meteorological Department has forecast that rainfall during the second half of the season is also likely to be below par. As a result the season could end up with a deficiency of more than 10 per cent.

In a press release on Thursday, the IMD said rainfall over the country during August-September was likely to be below normal, at just 91 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of plus or minus 8 per cent.

“Based on the rainfall distribution over the country till date and the outlook for the second half of the season, the rainfall in the entire southwest monsoon season [June-September] is likely to be deficient [less than 90 per cent of LPA].”

Considering that the cumulative rainfall at the end of the first half of the season (July 31) was 13 per cent below normal, the forecast of 9 per cent deficiency during the second half meant that the season could end up with an overall deficiency of 15 per cent, said scientists at the IMD.

As of Wednesday, 56 per cent of the total geographical area of the country continued to have deficient rainfall, with 12 per cent facing a deficiency of over 60 per cent.

In the first long range forecast issued in April, the IMD predicted a rainfall of 99 per cent plus or minus five per cent for the country as a whole and the season in its entirety. It scaled it down to 96 per cent plus or minus four per cent in the second revised forecast issued in June. Now, the prediction is for a rainfall of 85 per cent.

However, monsoon in August is expected to be normal but a question mark looms over rainfall in September as El Nino conditions (warming of central Pacific Ocean) appear set to turn unfavourable for the country, IMD said in an update to the monsoon forecast. “In August, we are hoping for a better rainfall scenario but there will be some problem in the terminal part of the monsoon,” Mr. Rathore said.

With the country facing a 20 per cent deficient monsoon, the Union government on Tuesday announced a financial assistance of more than Rs. 1,900 crore under various schemes for the affected States. It also extended a diesel subsidy of 50 per cent to farmers to save the standing crops through groundwater irrigation.

Subsidy on seeds will be raised and farmers who are forced to sow again will be given compensation. To enhance the supply of animal feed, the import duty on oil meal cakes will be waived.

The decisions were taken at a meeting of the Empowered Group of Ministers (EGoM) on Drought. The meeting, chaired by Agriculture Minister Sharad Pawar, lasted two hours.

Announcing the decisions, Mr. Pawar said the subsidy on diesel would be shared equally by the Centre and the States. This would be applicable from the date of notification till September-end.